投行下半年更看跌美元，避险备胎正在受益

Core Viewpoint - The investment banks are increasingly bearish on the US dollar for the second half of the year, anticipating weak US economic data, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, asset sell-offs, and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Wells Fargo macro strategist Erik Nelson predicts more weak US economic data and a likelihood of the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates as the market expects [1] - UBS Wealth Management senior US economist Brian Rose emphasizes that the outlook heavily depends on the independence of the Federal Reserve, suggesting that concerns over its independence could severely undermine the dollar's safe-haven status [1] Group 2: Safe-Haven Currencies - In the current environment, currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are benefiting as alternative safe-haven options [1]