金十整理：美联储决议前夕—美元避险地位恐遭挑战，今夜多头能否发起反击？

Group 1 - UBS emphasizes that the dollar's safe-haven status may be severely undermined if concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence arise, benefiting currencies like the yen and Swiss franc [1] - Danske Bank predicts that as the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts, the dollar will be pressured, with the euro expected to rise from 1.1340 to 1.22 against the dollar within 12 months [1] - Deutsche Bank warns that uncertainty in U.S. policy could lead to a long-term decline in the dollar, citing recent comments from Trump as a potential threat to the Fed's independence [1] Group 2 - Swissquote Bank suggests that news from U.S.-China talks may raise hopes for easing trade tensions, boosting risk appetite and potentially leading to a dollar recovery [1] - UBS forecasts that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is unlikely to provide much support for the dollar, with options markets indicating a preference for betting on a dollar decline [1] - Wells Fargo is more bearish on the dollar for the second half of the year, anticipating weaker U.S. economic data, actual interest rate cuts by the Fed, and renewed concerns about the Fed's independence [1] Group 3 - ING expects limited impact on the dollar from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, as market expectations align with Powell's recent statements, with a potential for a mild rebound if Trump continues to signal positively on trade [2] - Monex Europe notes that a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, focusing on inflation risks in the coming months, could provide some relief for the pressured dollar [2]