美国进口商“末日狂奔”：特朗普关税后遗症刚开始，物价可能要涨到10月

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant impact of high tariffs on U.S. imports, predicting a sharp decline in import volumes in the second half of the year due to preemptive stockpiling and rising consumer prices [1][7]. Group 1: Import Trends - U.S. total imports increased by 23.3% year-to-date, with a notable rise in March where the trade deficit expanded to $140.5 billion, a $17.3 billion increase (14%) from the previous month [1]. - March saw a historic high in consumer goods imports, which rose by $22.5 billion, driven by a surge in pharmaceutical imports that skyrocketed by $20.9 billion [3]. - The imposition of a 25% tariff on imported automobiles and similar tariffs on auto parts initiated a panic buying trend among importers [3]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - Oxford Economics predicts that while imports may remain high in Q2, a drastic decline is expected in the latter half of the year, potentially leading to stock shortages for retailers [7]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates that industries such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors will face stricter tariffs, with the potential for previously suspended tariffs to be reinstated [4]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Consumer Impact - The tariffs have caused a significant freeze in supply chains, with container arrivals at U.S. ports dropping by 43% year-on-year during a specific week [6]. - Retailers report that their inventory levels can only support one to two months of sales, raising concerns about a potential shortage crisis [7]. - The U.S. manufacturing index has fallen to 48.7, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity and a decline in export orders, which may lead to slower economic growth and rising unemployment [7].