一财首席经济学家调研：宏观调控强度加大，缓解我国经济发展压力

Economic Outlook - Economists believe there is significant policy space to boost domestic demand and consumption, focusing on developing service consumption, optimizing the consumption environment, and implementing "two new" policies to stabilize employment and increase residents' income [1][28][32] Confidence Index - The "First Financial Chief Economist Confidence Index" for May is 49.84, falling below the neutral line of 50, indicating economic pressure due to declining external demand and uncertain tariff policies [5][1] Inflation and Price Trends - The predicted average year-on-year CPI for April is -0.17%, a decrease from March's -0.1%, while the PPI is expected to be -2.65%, slightly lower than March's -2.5% [8][4] Retail Sales - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for social retail sales in April is 5.45%, down from 5.9% in March, with expectations for a recovery in consumption supported by various government policies [12][28] Industrial Production - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for industrial added value in April is 5.62%, lower than March's 7.7%, indicating a potential slowdown in industrial activity [13][14] Fixed Asset Investment - The predicted average growth rate for fixed asset investment in April is 4.11%, slightly down from 4.2% in March, reflecting mixed signals in infrastructure and real estate investments [15][16] Real Estate Investment - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for real estate development investment in April remains at -9.9%, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [16][18] Trade Balance - The predicted trade surplus for April is $91.341 billion, with expectations of a decline in imports by 5.68% and a modest increase in exports by 2.48% [18][4] Financial Data - Predictions for April include new loans at 7,764 billion yuan, a significant drop from March's 36,400 billion yuan, and a total social financing amount of 1.31 trillion yuan [19][20] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China plans to implement ten policies to enhance macroeconomic control, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, to support economic growth [4][22] Currency and Foreign Reserves - The predicted exchange rate for the RMB against the USD by the end of May is 7.18, with foreign reserves expected to be around $32,330.11 billion by the end of April [24][25] Policy Recommendations - Economists suggest that future policies should focus on increasing disposable income for low- and middle-income groups, enhancing service consumption, and improving the consumption environment to stimulate economic growth [31][32][30]