新台币点燃亚洲货币升值预期，哪些货币有望走强？

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility of the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) against the US Dollar (USD) has raised concerns among market participants, with expectations of further intervention from Taiwan's monetary authorities to stabilize the currency [1][5][9]. Group 1: Currency Volatility - As of May 7, the USD/TWD exchange rate returned to approximately 30.33, indicating a calming of market sentiment after a significant drop to 28.93 on May 5, which represented a nearly 10% decline from over 32 on May 2 [4][5]. - The dramatic depreciation of the TWD was triggered by local banks reportedly halting USD purchases, leading to fears that Taiwan's monetary authorities would not closely monitor the exchange rate, resulting in panic selling [5][6]. - The TWD's nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) has strengthened, prompting speculation that Taiwan's monetary authorities may increase market intervention to manage volatility [7][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The recent fluctuations have led to a significant increase in hedging activities among Taiwanese life insurance companies, which typically hold substantial overseas assets and require foreign exchange hedging [6][7]. - Despite the volatility, there is a notable lack of strong buying interest in USD assets from actual investors, reflecting a prevailing bearish sentiment towards the USD [9][10]. - Other Asian currencies, particularly those with export-oriented economies and high USD holdings, such as Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, are also under scrutiny for potential appreciation pressures [9][10]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - Taiwan's first-quarter exports reached a record high of $130 billion, contributing to a consistent current account surplus exceeding $100 billion for four consecutive years, which supports the TWD's strength [6]. - The influx of foreign capital into Taiwan's stock market, with net inflows exceeding $20 billion this month, has further bolstered the TWD [6][9]. - The overall trend in Asia shows a growing concern regarding currency risks, with countries like South Korea and Malaysia also experiencing increased foreign currency deposit ratios [9][10].