Methanex's Q1 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Miss

Core Viewpoint - Methanex Corporation reported a significant increase in profit for the first quarter of 2025, despite a decline in revenues and production, indicating potential challenges ahead for the company. Financial Performance - The profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was $111 million or $1.44 per share, up from $53 million or 77 cents per share in the same quarter last year [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.30, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.25 [1] - Revenues decreased by approximately 2.2% year over year to $896 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,039.5 million [1] Operational Highlights - Adjusted EBITDA rose around 55% year over year to $248 million [2] - Total production for the quarter was 1,619,000 tons, down 5.9% year over year, affected by a planned turnaround and an unplanned outage [2] - Total sales volume decreased by 16.9% year over year to 2,217,000 tons, missing the estimate of 2,629,000 tons [3] - The average realized price for methanol was $404 per ton, up from $343 per ton in the prior-year quarter, exceeding the estimate of $396 per ton [3] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter were $1,087.4 million [4] - Cash flow from operating activities was $315 million [4] - The company returned $12.5 million to shareholders through dividends in the reported quarter [4] Outlook - Methanex expects 2025 production to be lower than the previously estimated 7.5 million tons due to the unplanned G3 outage [5] - The company anticipates lower adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2025 compared to Q1, primarily due to reduced sales from the G3 outage and a lower average realized price [6] - The expected average realized price for methanol in April and May is projected to be between $360 and $370 per ton [6] Stock Performance - Methanex shares have declined by 33.1% over the past year, compared to a 28.9% decline in the industry [7] Zacks Rank and Comparisons - Methanex currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [8] - Other better-ranked stocks in the basic materials sector include Hawkins, Inc. (Zacks Rank 1), Franco-Nevada Corporation (Zacks Rank 2), and Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (Zacks Rank 2) [8]