面对货币政策适度宽松，人民币汇率缘何延续韧性？业界：美元下跌预期叠加4月外汇储备环比大增，海外投机资本不敢贸然沽空

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy while the RMB maintains resilience in both domestic and offshore markets [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The reduction in reserve requirement and interest rates is expected to support the stable development of the Chinese economy, contributing to the resilience of the RMB exchange rate [1]. - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield remained stable at around 1.64%, keeping the China-U.S. interest rate differential at approximately -268 basis points, which has deterred speculative capital from shorting the offshore RMB [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The offshore RMB exchange rate showed limited volatility, with fluctuations of less than 200 basis points, indicating a calm market response to the monetary policy changes [3]. - Following the announcement, the offshore RMB rate initially fell from 7.188 to 7.229 but stabilized thereafter, reflecting a lack of strong short-selling interest from overseas speculators [4]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $41 billion in April, reaching $3.2817 trillion, which has contributed to the RMB's resilience against short-selling pressures [5][6]. - The increase in reserves is attributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar index from 104.3 to 99.6, enhancing the value of non-dollar assets in the reserves [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the potential for downward pressure on the RMB from the monetary policy adjustments, the ample foreign exchange reserves provide strong support against depreciation, deterring speculative short-selling [7]. - The RMB is expected to remain stable around the 7.2 level, influenced by the ongoing strength of the Asia-Pacific currencies and the negative correlation with the U.S. dollar index [2][7].