Watch These 4 Energy Stocks for Q1 Earnings: Beat or Miss?

Core Insights - The oil/energy sector is facing challenges in Q1 2025 due to fluctuating commodity prices, with oil prices declining and natural gas prices increasing, leading to a mixed outlook for the sector [1][2][3] Oil Price Performance - West Texas Intermediate crude's average price fell to $71.84 per barrel, down from $77.56 the previous year, influenced by sluggish global economic growth, rising oil production from non-OPEC+ countries, potential output increases by OPEC+, and weaker demand [2] - Additional downward pressure on oil prices is attributed to growing trade tensions and an increase in oil inventories [2] Natural Gas Price Performance - The Henry Hub spot price for natural gas averaged $4.15 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), nearly doubling from $2.13 MMBtu in the same quarter last year, driven by unusually cold weather and increased heating demand [3] - The rise in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports has also contributed to tighter supply and elevated prices [3] Sector Earnings Trends - Sector earnings are projected to decline by 13.6% year over year, while revenues have increased by only 0.7%, insufficient to offset the decline in profitability [4] - The decline in earnings is primarily due to weaker oil prices compressing margins across the sector [4] Comparative Sector Performance - The oil/energy sector is underperforming compared to other sectors, such as Technology and Medical, which are experiencing strong earnings growth [5] - Excluding the oil/energy sector, the S&P 500's overall earnings growth improves to 4.4%, highlighting the negative impact of the oil/energy sector on aggregate results [6] Company Earnings Focus - Companies in the oil/energy sector are preparing for their Q1 earnings reports, with a focus on achieving a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) to increase the odds of an earnings beat [7] Company-Specific Insights - Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG): Expected earnings of $2.81 per share, a 31.92% increase year-over-year, with a history of beating estimates [11] - Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ): Expected earnings of 73 cents per share, a 43.14% increase year-over-year, with mixed performance in beating estimates [13] - Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE): Expected earnings of 29 cents per share, a 36.96% decrease year-over-year, with a history of missing estimates [15] - Berry Corporation (BRY): Expected earnings of 10 cents per share, a 28.57% decrease year-over-year, with limited success in beating estimates [17]