中金：美联储不会先发制人降息 未来的降息路径将取决于关税谈判

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in May aligns with market expectations, indicating a cautious approach amid rising risks of both unemployment and inflation, suggesting a potential "stagflation" scenario [1][2] Monetary Policy Outlook - The absence of new dot plots and economic forecasts means the monetary policy statement is the only document to consider, highlighting the Fed's awareness of the dual risks of rising unemployment and inflation [2] - Fed Chair Powell's comments suggest that despite the rising risks, economic data has not shown significant deterioration, allowing the Fed to remain patient and avoid preemptive rate cuts [3] Economic Conditions - Current economic indicators, such as a stable labor market and low unemployment, do not warrant immediate action from the Fed, with Powell emphasizing that the policy is "well-positioned" [3] - The Fed's ability to support the economy is constrained by potential inflationary pressures from tariffs, contrasting with the more favorable conditions during the previous trade tensions in 2019 [3] Future Rate Cut Scenarios - The Fed's future rate cut decisions will largely depend on the outcomes of tariff negotiations, with two potential scenarios outlined: 1. If trade talks fail and tariffs remain high, the Fed may be forced into a "recession-style" rate cut of up to 100 basis points by year-end [4] 2. If effective results from trade negotiations are achieved, the first rate cut may be delayed until December, with a more moderate reduction [4] Market Implications - The uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations and the rising "stagflation" risks create a challenging macroeconomic environment for capital markets, as the Fed adopts a wait-and-see approach rather than proactive rate cuts [5]