【财经分析】欧盟加速重塑天然气战略：供应多元化难解高额能源账单压力

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission announced a plan to completely ban imports of natural gas from Russia by the end of 2027, aiming to diversify energy sources and reduce reliance on Russian fossil fuels [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The European Commission's plan includes a prohibition on new contracts or spot trading of Russian gas starting from the end of 2025, with existing contracts gradually terminated [2]. - The REPowerEU plan previously committed to ending all imports of Russian fossil fuels by 2027 [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite a significant reduction in reliance on Russian gas, with its share in EU imports dropping from 40% in 2021 to 8% in 2023, LNG imports have increased, with the share rising from 22% to 39% during the same period [5]. - In 2024, LNG imports from the U.S. accounted for nearly 45% of total EU LNG imports, while Norway became the largest supplier of pipeline gas to the EU with over 33% [5]. Group 3: Economic Impact - High natural gas prices have significantly impacted European industrial sectors, particularly the aluminum industry, where gas prices surged from €35.08 per MWh in 2021 to €82.96 per MWh in 2022 [7]. - The overall energy expenditure for low-income households in the EU is disproportionately high, with the lowest 10% of income earners spending 41% of their disposable income on energy, compared to just 4% for the highest 10% [8]. Group 4: Price Trends - Despite a more favorable supply-demand balance, European natural gas prices remain elevated, with the TTF spot price dropping to €30-40 per MWh in 2023-2024, still significantly higher than the pre-conflict level of €20 per MWh [6]. - The EU's total gas import bill reached over €220 billion in 2021, accounting for 24% of total EU imports, and while it fell to €118 billion in 2022, its share increased to 40% [6].