智通财经网·2025-05-08 02:38Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is undergoing a phase of clearing, with 70% of companies experiencing a year-on-year decline in ROE in 2024, although overall ROE is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the copper foil segment [1][2]. Performance Growth - The profit structure of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry chain is increasingly concentrated in the downstream battery segment, which remains dominant despite a slight decline in profit share in Q1 2025. The net profit attributable to the parent company from the battery segment for Q1 2023, 2024, and 2025 is 78.30%, 90.10%, and 80.63% respectively [1]. - Leading companies in the battery segment maintain stable profitability during the downturn, with notable net profits reported for 2024: CATL (44.993 billion), Zhongwei (1.281 billion), and Shanta (0.809 billion) [1]. Profitability Space - In Q1 2025, the industry ROE has shown recovery, with only 45% of companies experiencing a year-on-year decline, indicating an improvement in the overall ROE of the lithium battery industry, especially in the copper foil segment [2]. Debt Servicing Ability - Leading companies are reducing leverage, with CATL's asset-liability ratio decreasing by 4.10 percentage points in 2024 and 3.74 percentage points in Q1 2025. Other companies are increasing leverage to alleviate financial pressure [3]. - The operating cash flow continues to favor battery leaders, with total cash flow for the entire industry chain reaching 287.4 billion and 42 billion in 2024 and Q1 2025 respectively, with CATL and BYD accounting for 80% and 99% of this cash flow [3]. Operational Efficiency - The entire industry chain is under pressure, with 96% of companies experiencing a decline in fixed asset turnover in 2024. In Q1 2025, the rate of decline in asset turnover has slowed, but 57% of companies still report a year-on-year decrease [4]. - Approximately 79% of companies in the industry chain saw a decline in accounts receivable turnover in 2024, continuing the trend of extended payment periods observed in 2023 [4]. Financial Framework - Leading companies have seen an increase in ROE over the past eight quarters, with improvements in profitability for phosphate lithium, batteries, anodes, and copper foil expected soon. Capital expenditures have remained low since peaking in Q4 2022, with a balanced supply-demand situation anticipated for 2024 and Q1 2025 [5]. - The battery and phosphate lithium segments show weaker performance in terms of liquidity ratios and asset-liability ratios, indicating a pressing need for profitability recovery [5].