大涨！新式茶饮第六股来了，“狂欢”背后行业表现分化……

Core Viewpoint - The new-style tea beverage brands have been actively entering the capital market this year, with multiple listings leading to increased market interest and stock price appreciation for several brands [1][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - Six new-style tea brands have now listed on the capital market, including the recent listing of "沪上阿姨" on May 8, which saw its stock price surge over 54% [1][11]. - Prior to the listing of "蜜雪冰城" in March, the market was skeptical about new-style tea brands, but its successful debut has since boosted interest and stock prices for other brands like "古茗" and "沪上阿姨" [1][12]. - "沪上阿姨" experienced a significant pre-listing performance, with its dark market price increasing by over 60% and a subscription multiple of 3447.33 times, raising over 940 billion HKD [2][3]. Group 2: Company Expansion and Strategy - "沪上阿姨" has rapidly expanded its store network from 5,307 at the end of 2022 to a projected 9,176 by the end of 2024, primarily through a franchise model [6][8]. - The brand has strategically focused on lower-tier markets, achieving a strong market position among mid-priced tea beverage brands in these areas [9]. - The company has adapted its product offerings to meet consumer demand, transitioning from "五谷奶茶" to fresh fruit tea, which has been well-received [7][9]. Group 3: Financial Performance - "沪上阿姨" reported a slight revenue decline from 3.348 billion RMB in 2023 to 3.285 billion RMB in 2024, attributed to reduced franchise and self-operated store income [9]. - The adjusted profits for "沪上阿姨" were 154 million RMB in 2022, 416 million RMB in 2023, and 418 million RMB in 2024, with profit margins increasing from 7% to 12.7% over the same period [9]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The competitive landscape for new-style tea brands is intense, with the total number of tea beverage stores in China reaching approximately 464,000 by the end of 2023 [18]. - The industry is facing challenges such as market saturation, declining average store GMV from 1.6 million RMB in 2023 to 1.4 million RMB in 2024, and a decrease in average transaction value [18]. - Companies like "喜茶" have recognized the unsustainable nature of current competition and are shifting strategies to focus on differentiation rather than price competition [19].