Core Viewpoint - The consensus among various institutions indicates a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England, with further cuts anticipated in the coming months, potentially paving the way for a total reduction to 3.25% by year-end [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Cut Predictions - Capital Economics predicts a 25 basis point cut, with a further 25 basis point reduction expected in November, bringing the benchmark rate to 4% by year-end [1]. - TD Securities anticipates a 25 basis point cut with a voting split of 8-1, suggesting that member Dingra may support a 50 basis point cut [1]. - Deutsche Bank expects a 25 basis point cut, with three additional cuts in August, November, and December, indicating a potential for larger cuts in the future [1]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation Outlook - Pantheon Macroeconomics has revised GDP growth forecasts down to 0.9% for this year and 1% for next year, with inflation expected to rise to 3.4% in Q2 [1]. - Oxford Economics suggests that concerns over U.S. tariffs on the UK economy may prompt a more proactive approach to rate cuts by the Bank of England [2]. - Barclays indicates that the Monetary Policy Committee may signal a shift towards a lower inflation outlook, potentially opening the door for a June rate cut [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - Morgan Stanley notes that at least two committee members may support a 50 basis point cut, reflecting a growing dovish sentiment within the committee [1]. - Ebury highlights that while the market expects a total of 90 basis points in cuts this year, the Bank of England may struggle to meet these expectations, which could bolster the pound if the market's expectations are deemed excessive [2]. - ING suggests that the pace of rate cuts may not align with market expectations, predicting a quarterly cut approach instead [2].
金十整理:机构前瞻英国央行利率决议——降息25BP几成定局,或为6月降息铺路
news flash·2025-05-08 07:50