法国外贸银行：仍预期美联储9月重启降息周期 终端利率料达到3%

Core Viewpoint - The French Foreign Trade Bank maintains its expectation that the Federal Reserve will restart its rate-cutting cycle in September, with a terminal rate projected to reach 3% [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve Expectations - The results of the recent Federal Reserve meeting align with prior guidance from policymakers, indicating no change in the bank's expectations for the Fed [1] - The bank anticipates multiple rate cuts in succession until the terminal rate reaches 3% [1] Economic Predictions - The baseline forecast for this year includes a moderate rise in the unemployment rate rather than a sharp increase [1] - The bank suggests that the Fed will only ease policies after the risks of recurring inflation are mitigated [1] Downside Risks - There is a caution regarding potential downside risks; if vulnerabilities in the labor market materialize, the Fed may be compelled to cut rates before September, potentially exceeding the baseline prediction of a 25 basis point cut [1]