Group 1 - Hong Hao, Chief Economist at Sire, believes that Hong Kong stocks will perform well in the second half of the year, particularly in the technology sector, which is more attractive than US tech stocks [1][3] - The US stock market is still considered overvalued, needing to drop by at least one-third to reach a reasonable valuation of around 15 times earnings, especially if fiscal policies contract rather than expand [1][2] - There is a potential for a trading rebound in the US stock market, but it is not indicative of a market reversal, and this trading window may last for a couple of weeks or longer [1] Group 2 - The US economic outlook is deteriorating rapidly, with the first quarter showing negative GDP growth due to inventory impacts, and similar trends are expected in the second quarter [2] - The dollar remains supported despite potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as the interest rate differential between the US and China remains significant, influencing capital flows [2] - Chinese technology stocks, particularly those listed in Hong Kong, are seen as having higher value and safety margins due to their lower prices and expected policy support amid US-China competition [3]
洪灝：港股下半年还有新高 美股估值回调还未结束
智通财经网·2025-05-08 08:09