中航证券王宏涛：大军工领域新质主题仍将不断深化、反复演绎

Core Viewpoint - The military industry sector in A-shares is experiencing a continuation of its upward trend, with nearly 20 stocks hitting the daily limit or rising over 10%. However, the financial performance of military companies shows signs of slowing down, indicating challenges ahead for the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, among 239 listed military companies, 88 reported a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, while 151 experienced a decline [1]. - The median revenue growth rate for military enterprises in 2024 is negative for the first time since 2012, and the median net profit growth rate is the lowest in nearly 20 years [1]. - The Q1 2025 financial data for military companies indicates a continuation of the 2024 trend, with further revenue slowdown and negative net profit growth [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The demand for the military industry remains real and urgent, with expectations that downstream demand may be deferred until the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," setting the stage for a potential rebound [2]. - Recent announcements of large orders from many upstream military companies signal a positive trend in order recovery within the military sector [2]. - The military industry is expected to undergo a revaluation, benefiting from improved asset quality, new growth areas, larger business scales, and higher market ceilings [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The overall sentiment and fundamentals of the military industry are anticipated to recover continuously, with no significant negative factors expected in the near term [2]. - The second half of the year is projected to perform better than the first half, with quarterly performance expected to improve [2]. - Themes such as low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, deep-sea technology, large aircraft, and military intelligence are expected to remain active and deepen, contributing to a potential resurgence in the military sector [2][3].