欧洲房地产基金遭散户撤资130亿美元 资金转投基建、信贷

Core Insights - European real estate funds are facing a severe capital outflow, with retail investors redeeming €11.44 billion (approximately $13 billion) from registered real estate funds in the region as of March 2023, marking a 20% increase compared to the previous 12 months [1] - Since February 2023, euro-denominated real estate funds have consistently experienced net outflows [1] Group 1 - Investor sentiment is increasingly negative, driven by rising default rates and the impact of the interest rate hike cycle on the attractiveness of the sector [4] - The long transaction cycles and lagging valuation adjustments in commercial real estate make it difficult for fund net values to reflect real market risks, prompting investors to exit early to mitigate risks [4] - The shift in work patterns and stricter environmental regulations are reshaping the value system of commercial real estate, leading to significant valuation declines for office assets held by many funds, creating a vicious cycle of redemption pressure and asset disposal difficulties [4] Group 2 - A wave of fund liquidations is underway, with St James's Place Plc in the UK gradually liquidating its real estate fund portfolio after large-scale redemptions, and Aegon Ltd. in the Netherlands closing related products due to sustained fund sizes below breakeven [4] - Goldman Sachs also terminated a global real estate securities fund that had incurred losses for five consecutive years [4] - There is a notable trend of capital shifting towards more stable asset classes, with DWS Group's alternative real estate fund experiencing approximately €500 million in redemptions in Q1 2023, as funds flow into infrastructure and private credit [4] Group 3 - The industry has not yet reached a turning point, as market expectations of central bank interest rate cuts boosting real estate prices are tempered by reality [4] - Data from Green Street indicates that U.S. hotel property valuations fell by 2.8% in April due to weak international tourism, contributing to a 0.5% decline in the overall commercial real estate index [4] - The management scale of European real estate funds has shrunk to €156 billion, a decrease of approximately €44 billion from the peak in February 2023 [5] - DWS Group's CEO, Stefan Hoops, acknowledged ongoing capital outflows but expressed cautious optimism regarding the medium to long-term outlook due to current valuation levels [5] - The ongoing industry adjustment, initiated by capital movements, is testing the asset disposal capabilities and strategic transformation resolve of European real estate funds [5]