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光明肉业(600073):布局全球的优质牛肉标的 有望受益牛肉涨价利好催化
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-05-08 10:30

Group 1 - The company is a rare quality beef listed entity with stable beef and lamb resources from New Zealand [1] - The company was formerly known as Shanghai Meilin Zhengguanghe Co., Ltd., and is a core meat industry enterprise under Bright Food Group, with various well-known brands [1] - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue increased by 8.46% year-on-year to 6.154 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company rose by 66.82% to 166 million yuan, benefiting from the rising beef prices [1] Group 2 - The domestic beef cattle breeding industry is undergoing significant capacity reduction, with a projected turning point in supply expected in 2025 [2] - In January 2025, beef cattle slaughter increased by 6% month-on-month and 39% year-on-year, while the breeding stock decreased by 22% year-on-year [2] - The company anticipates a significant rebound in beef prices starting in 2025, with a potential peak price increase of 80% compared to the bottom price at the end of 2024 [2] Group 3 - The company's beef business is expected to benefit from the price reversal, with a cautious estimate of an increase in net profit by approximately 520 million yuan if prices rise by 22% from the bottom [3] - The subsidiary Silver Fern Farms has a production volume of 350,000 to 400,000 tons of beef and lamb annually, accounting for 30% of New Zealand's total output, primarily exporting to China and the U.S. [3] - The company forecasts net profits of 496 million, 601 million, and 705 million yuan for 2025-2027, with annual profit growth rates of 129.7%, 21.1%, and 17.3% respectively [3]