Double Medical(002901) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-05-08 10:37Core Viewpoint - The company has emerged from the impact of centralized procurement, achieving strong growth in its traditional orthopedic segment on a low base, and successfully expanding into new business areas, maintaining a buy rating [1] Investment Highlights - The company maintains a buy rating, with projected EPS for 2025-2026 at 1.24/1.64 yuan, and a new EPS forecast for 2027 at 1.99 yuan. The target PE for 2025 is set at 36X, with an updated target price of 44.64 yuan (previously 42.65 yuan) [2] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.136 billion yuan (up 39.3% YoY) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 357 million yuan (up 505%). The non-recurring net profit was 285 million yuan (up 2604%) [2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 550 million yuan (up 28.8% YoY) and a net profit of 103 million yuan (up 67%), with non-recurring net profit at 97 million yuan (up 97%) [2] - The performance in 2023 was affected by inventory adjustments due to centralized procurement in 2021 and 2022, leading to a low base for 2024, which is expected to see continued growth as the impact clears [2] Orthopedic Product Lines - The core orthopedic product lines have recovered from the impact of centralized procurement, with trauma and spinal product lines showing continuous sales growth. In 2024, trauma product sales are expected to reach 821 million yuan (up 43.4%), with a gross margin increase of 3.67 percentage points to 75.34% [3] - Spinal product revenue in 2024 is projected at 388 million yuan (up 36.9%), with a slight decline in gross margin by 1.06 percentage points to 67.66% due to high prices before centralized procurement [3] - Joint products are also expected to maintain good growth, with projected revenue of 189 million yuan (up 21.1%) in 2024 [3] Non-Orthopedic Consumables - The non-orthopedic consumables business is showing good growth potential, aiming to contribute to a second growth curve for the company. In 2024, R&D investment is expected to reach 307 million yuan, accounting for 14.4% of revenue [4] - Minimally invasive surgical products are projected to achieve revenue of 363 million yuan (up 26.5%) with a gross margin increase of 1.77 percentage points to 78.19% [4] - Revenue from neurosurgical products is expected to be 103 million yuan (up 26.3%), dental products at 67 million yuan (up 28.2%), and other products at 162 million yuan (up 141%) [4]