商品日报（5月8日）：氧化铝大幅反弹 铁矿双焦承压走弱

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On May 8, the domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results, with the main contract for alumina rising over 3%, while the main contracts for manganese silicon, polysilicon, and p-xylene increased by more than 2% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1350.50 points, down 13.43 points or 0.98% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Alumina Market Analysis - The main contract for alumina rebounded significantly, closing up over 3% due to ongoing maintenance at several alumina plants, providing support for the market [2] - Despite new production capacity coming online, the overall operating capacity is expected to decline due to maintenance, keeping production at relatively low levels [2] - Short-term supply is unlikely to increase significantly, while downstream electrolytic aluminum production is slightly increasing, leading to improved supply-demand fundamentals [2] Group 3: Manganese Silicon Market Insights - Manganese silicon futures saw a rebound of 2.53% as supply pressures eased, but high inventory levels and weak downstream demand continue to limit upward momentum [3] - The production of silicon manganese is expected to decline due to industry profit pressures, but there is potential for rapid production increases if profits improve [3] Group 4: Shipping and Freight Market Trends - The main contract for the European shipping index fell over 3%, with a significant drop of 7% earlier in the day, attributed to weak fundamentals and geopolitical uncertainties affecting demand [4] - Maersk warned of a potential decline in global container volumes due to trade disputes and regional uncertainties [4] - The market is closely watching tariff policy changes that could influence shipping capacity and pricing dynamics [4] Group 5: Black Metal Market Conditions - The black metal sector experienced widespread declines, with iron ore, coke, and coking coal contracts all dropping over 2% due to weak demand and increased inventory levels [5] - National steel inventory increased by 289,700 tons, halting a nine-week decline, while apparent demand dropped significantly [5] - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with expectations of peak production for iron and steel, leading to further downward pressure on prices [5]