美股前瞻 | 三大股指期货齐涨，特朗普将宣布与英国达成贸易协议

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.88%, S&P 500 futures up by 1.03%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.35% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up by 1.16%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.28%, France's CAC 40 up by 1.07%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 1.28% [2] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.77% to $59.10 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 1.47% to $62.02 per barrel [2] Trade Agreements and Economic Outlook - President Trump is set to announce a "comprehensive" trade agreement with the UK, which may involve reducing tariffs on UK steel and automobiles, as well as agricultural tariffs [3] - PIMCO warns that the risk of a US recession is at its highest in years, suggesting that investors may underestimate Trump's willingness to reinstate aggressive tariffs [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates until trade policy becomes clearer, maintaining the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% [5] Inflation and Currency Impact - Goldman Sachs raised its inflation forecasts for the US, predicting a key inflation indicator to reach 3.8% by the end of 2025, influenced by a weaker dollar due to tariffs [6] Company Earnings Reports - Shopify reported Q1 sales of $2.36 billion, exceeding expectations, but faces challenges from tariffs affecting its cross-border business, which accounts for 14% of its total gross merchandise volume [6] - Toyota's Q4 revenue was 12.36 trillion yen, up 12% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 33% to 664.6 billion yen, below expectations. The company forecasts a 21% decline in operating profit for FY2026 [7] - Anheuser-Busch InBev's Q1 adjusted EBITDA grew by 7.9%, surpassing expectations, and the company maintained its annual guidance [7] - Occidental Petroleum's Q1 sales rose by 14% to $6.84 billion, exceeding expectations, with a focus on debt reduction [8] - Arm's Q1 revenue guidance disappointed, reflecting concerns about a slowdown in the chip industry [8] - Fortinet's Q1 revenue grew by 13.7% to $1.539 billion, with net profit increasing by 44.8% [9] - AppLovin's Q1 revenue reached $1.48 billion, up 40%, and the company agreed to sell its mobile gaming division to focus on advertising technology [10] - Zai Lab reported Q1 total revenue of $106 million, a 22.19% increase year-on-year, driven by sales growth of its key products [10] - AutoHome's Q1 net income was 342 million yuan, with total revenue of 1.454 billion yuan [11] Strategic Moves - Apple is reconsidering its $20 billion search deal with Google, suggesting that future collaboration may not be necessary as it explores AI services [11]