英国央行谨慎暗示进一步降息 市场调整定价

Group 1 - The Bank of England has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 4.5% to 4.25%, maintaining a cautious approach to future rate changes [1] - Inflation expectations have been revised down, with the Bank forecasting inflation to peak at 3.5% in Q3 2025, down from a previous estimate of 3.7% [2] - The overall inflation rate in the UK has remained around the 2% target level over the past year, although slightly above the average [2] Group 2 - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee is vigilant about dual risks stemming from trade tariffs and economic uncertainty, which may impact economic activity [2] - Following the rate decision, the British pound rose against the US dollar, with traders adjusting their expectations for future rate cuts [4] - Various institutions predict further rate cuts, with Capital Economics expecting a reduction to 4% by the end of the year, and Morgan Stanley forecasting a drop to 3.25% [5][7] Group 3 - The Bank of England's Deputy Governor noted that it is too early to assess significant changes in trade patterns following tariff adjustments [3] - The Bank is expected to maintain a gradual and cautious approach to further rate cuts due to the unpredictable global economic situation [3] - Oxford Economics suggests that concerns over US tariffs may prompt the Bank to adopt a more proactive stance on rate cuts [8]