人身险预定利率最快三季度下调，长期险保费或上涨、投资者收益下降

Core Viewpoint - The current research value of the predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products in China is 2.13%, and if it remains below 2.25% in the next quarter, a reduction in the predetermined interest rate is expected, leading to increased premiums for critical illness insurance and decreased returns for long-term savings insurance products [1][2]. Group 1: Predetermined Interest Rate Impact - The current predetermined interest rate research value of 2.13% is 37 basis points lower than the upper limit of 2.5% [2]. - If the predetermined interest rate research value remains below 2.25% next quarter, it will trigger a mechanism to lower the maximum predetermined interest rate for new products [2]. - Analysts predict that if the predetermined interest rate is adjusted to 2.25%, it may further drop to 2% in the fourth quarter due to ongoing low interest rates [2]. Group 2: Critical Illness Insurance - The reduction in the predetermined interest rate will significantly impact long-term insurance premiums, particularly for critical illness insurance [3]. - It is anticipated that premiums for children's critical illness insurance will increase more than those for adults due to longer insurance periods and greater compounding effects [3]. - The product structure for critical illness insurance may evolve to either simplify coverage to lower premiums or offer a combination of mandatory and optional coverage for consumer choice [3]. Group 3: Savings Insurance - The reduction in the predetermined interest rate will also affect the returns on long-term savings insurance products such as increasing death benefit life insurance and annuities [4]. - A case study shows that for a certain increasing death benefit life insurance product, a drop in the predetermined interest rate from 2.5% to 2.0% results in a significant decrease in cash value over time, with losses of over 48,000 yuan after 40 years for a 1 million yuan premium [5]. - Analysts believe that the competitiveness of traditional insurance products will decline, highlighting the sales potential of participating insurance products [5]. Group 4: Participating Insurance - While the guaranteed returns of participating insurance will decrease with the drop in predetermined interest rates, the actual returns may not necessarily follow suit [6]. - Insurance companies may increase investments in equity assets to potentially generate higher returns for policyholders, despite the risk of zero dividends in extreme cases [6]. - Consumers are advised to review historical dividend performance and consult professional insurance advisors for optimal product selection [6].