国际瞭望 | 美联储保持高度谨慎 连续第三次维持利率不变

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive meeting where rates remain unchanged [1] - The Fed's statement indicates that while the U.S. economy remains strong, uncertainties regarding economic outlook have increased, with rising risks of unemployment and inflation [1][2] - Current policy rates are considered restrictive, and the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of tariffs on its dual mandate of achieving full employment and price stability [2] Group 2 - Experts suggest that if tariffs lead to a one-time price shock resulting in economic slowdown and rising unemployment, the Fed may consider significant rate cuts [2] - The Fed is expected to maintain its policy independence and focus on inflation until there is clear evidence of economic weakness, with a low probability of rate cuts in June [2][3] - Recent economic data, including a preliminary report showing a -0.3% annualized GDP growth rate for Q1 2025, reflects increasing downward pressure on the U.S. economy [2]