Will Rising Expenses Hurt Acadia Healthcare's Q1 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 12, with earnings estimated at 42 cents per share and revenues at $770.5 million, indicating a year-over-year earnings decline of 50% but a slight revenue growth of 0.3% [1][2]. Financial Estimates - First-quarter earnings estimates have declined by 8 cents per share over the past 60 days, reflecting a significant year-over-year decrease [2]. - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate for Acadia Healthcare is$ 3.33 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.7%, while the EPS estimate is $2.76, indicating a decline of 16.4% year-over-year [2]. Recent Performance - Acadia Healthcare has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of negative 0.4% [3]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Acadia Healthcare, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [4]. Revenue Drivers - Revenue per patient day is estimated to rise by 2% year-over-year, and revenues from Residential Treatment Centers are expected to increase by 9.7% from$ 85.6 million a year ago [6]. - U.S. same-facility admissions are projected to show a marginal increase, while revenues from Specialty Treatment Facilities are expected to rise by 0.1% from $143.8 million [7]. Expense Concerns - Rising expenses are anticipated to impact profit levels, with total expenses expected to increase by more than 11% due to higher salaries, wages, benefits, and other operating costs [8]. - Supply costs are also expected to rise due to increased utilization [8]. Revenue Declines in Specific Areas - Revenues from Acute Inpatient Psychiatric Facilities are projected to decrease by 1.3% from$ 401.1 million, and same-facility patient days are expected to decline by 1.1% year-over-year [9]. - Comprehensive Treatment Centers' revenues are estimated to fall by 0.5% from $132.2 million [9].