供求矛盾加大 海外稀土价格飙涨逾2倍

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant price increases in rare earth elements in Europe are primarily driven by China's export controls on heavy rare earths, leading to supply shortages and heightened demand for inventory replenishment [1][3][5]. Price Increases - Argus reported that the price of 99.5% purity dysprosium oxide in Europe surged from $250-$310 per kilogram to $700-$1000 per kilogram within a month [1]. - The price of 99.99% purity terbium oxide increased from $930-$1000 per kilogram to $2000-$4000 per kilogram, marking the highest levels since Argus began its price assessments in 2015 [1][3]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The export controls implemented by China on heavy rare earths have disrupted overseas supply, with limited inventory among users, creating a strong need for replenishment [3][5]. - The market is experiencing confusion, with some sellers in Europe quoting prices significantly above Argus's assessments, testing buyers' willingness to pay [4]. Market Comparisons - The current situation is compared to the rare earth price surge in 2010, which was driven by China's temporary export bans, leading to extreme price increases [9]. - Unlike the 2010 scenario, the current market is considered healthier, with a more stable supply chain, reducing the likelihood of speculative price surges [10]. Domestic Market Stability - In contrast to the overseas market, China's rare earth prices have remained stable, with no significant fluctuations due to sufficient domestic supply [11]. - During the "May Day" holiday, domestic trading was slow, with prices for various rare earth products remaining stable compared to pre-holiday levels [11][12]. Company Performance - Rare earth companies have shown improved performance in Q1 2024, with notable revenue increases attributed to the recovery in certain product prices [14][15][16]. - For instance, China Rare Earth reported a revenue of 728 million yuan, up 141.32% year-on-year, while Northern Rare Earth's revenue reached 9.287 billion yuan, a 61.19% increase [14]. Future Demand Drivers - The demand for rare earths is expected to be driven by the growth in the electric vehicle and robotics sectors, which have become core growth points for rare earth usage [17].