Is Medtronic Stock a Buy Pre-Q4 Earnings? Key Metrics to Watch

Core Viewpoint - Medtronic is facing challenges in the fiscal fourth quarter of 2025 due to rising costs, geopolitical pressures, and declining earnings estimates despite previous earnings beats [3][4][6]. Financial Performance - Medtronic's adjusted earnings for the last reported quarter were $1.39, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.21% [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter revenues is $8.81 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 2.6% [2] - The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is $1.58 per share, reflecting an 8.2% rise year-over-year [2] - Earnings estimates for the fourth quarter have declined by 1.9% over the past 90 days [2] Challenges and Headwinds - Rising costs and expenses due to inflation and geopolitical pressures are impacting profitability [3] - The tariff environment is affecting financial outlook, particularly due to Medtronic's manufacturing presence in Mexico and Canada [4] - Lower procedural volumes in elective surgeries and other medical procedures are putting pressure on the bottom line [6] - Unfavorable currency movements are expected to negatively impact revenues by $125 million to $175 million in the fourth quarter [8] Growth Opportunities - Despite challenges, Medtronic has shown resilience with mid-single-digit organic revenue growth [9] - Key growth areas include pulse field ablation, TAVR, neuromodulation, and diabetes businesses, driven by new product launches [10][12][13] - The company has made foundational changes to improve operations and is focusing on fast-growth MedTech markets [15][16] Market Position - Medtronic's stock has declined 5.9% in the fiscal fourth quarter, underperforming compared to industry peers [20] - The company's shares trade at a Price/Earnings ratio of 14.24X, below the industry average of 21.71X and the S&P 500's 20.43X [24][25] Conclusion - Medtronic has significant long-term growth potential but faces macroeconomic headwinds and rising expenses that could impact bottom-line growth [26]