中金公司:白酒板块今年业绩或呈先抑后扬走势
news flash·2025-05-09 01:17

Core Viewpoint - The current liquor sector, particularly the baijiu market, is facing a demand gap, and the recovery from the cyclical bottom relies on demand support [1] Industry Summary - The demand sentiment for baijiu is at a historical low, with the past five years' demand sentiment percentile at 28%, indicating limited downside risk [1] - A relatively loose policy environment is expected to provide a foundation for consumption recovery, with economic data from January to March showing initial positive signs [1] - Anticipation of further supportive policies is expected to help stabilize and gradually increase baijiu demand [1] Company Performance Outlook - Baijiu demand is projected to recover slowly, with short-term rigid demand from the general public and potential improvement in banquet demand due to a low comparative base [1] - In the medium term, policies are expected to stimulate stabilization in high-end baijiu demand [1] - The overall performance of the baijiu sector is likely to show a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery, supported by low comparative bases from the third and fourth quarters of the previous year [1]