中信证券：地产业来到下行周期尽头 行业转向综合素质竞争

Group 1 - The real estate industry is nearing the end of a downward cycle, with companies completing debt restructuring and asset quality stabilizing due to price stabilization and cash flow recovery [1] - Companies are experiencing a comprehensive contraction in operations, with a significant decrease in marketable resources, leading to a long-term reduction in sales and expenditures [1] - The competition in the industry is shifting from simple financial strength to a comprehensive competition based on development capabilities, product premium, and operational efficiency [1] Group 2 - In 2024, contract liabilities for 14 sample companies decreased by 17% year-on-year, down 30% from the peak in 2021, indicating a significant reduction in financial obligations [2] - The ratio of planned area to under-construction area for sample companies increased by 5.6 percentage points to 53.8%, reflecting a strategic reduction in new construction to save costs [2] - New construction area for sample companies is expected to decline by 32% in 2024 and again by 32% in 2025, indicating a cautious approach to investment [2] Group 3 - Companies are actively optimizing asset quality, with total assets for 14 sample companies projected to decrease by 7% to 9.2 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [3] - The inventory structure is improving, with a 14% decrease in inventory and a 25% reduction in total development costs, while the total development product amount increased by 21% [3] - The gross profit margin for sample companies is expected to decline by 2.7 percentage points to 12.8%, as companies focus on liquidating older inventory while supplementing new stock [3] Group 4 - Interest-bearing liabilities for sample companies slightly decreased by 1% to 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with a significant shift in debt structure towards asset-backed financing [4] - The balance of corporate credit financing decreased by 15.2%, while bank loans increased by 5%, indicating a move away from reliance on credit financing [4] - The proportion of credit financing in the total financing structure dropped by 3.9 percentage points to 22%, reflecting a healthier financing environment for the industry [4]