开源证券：寻找非银金融结构性机会 看好财险盈利改善确定性

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities highlights that amidst external uncertainties, domestic macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and the stock market are continuously being implemented, benefiting the non-bank financial sector, particularly the brokerage and insurance industries [1][2]. Non-Bank Financial Sector - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from increased market activity and high earnings, with a projected net profit for listed brokerages of 144.8 billion in 2024 and 51.7 billion in Q1 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 16% and 85% respectively [3]. - The insurance sector is seeing stable growth in liabilities, with an increasing proportion of dividend insurance and declining liability costs, which enhances the sector's investment appeal [2][5]. Brokerage and Multi-Financial Sector - The brokerage sector's performance is supported by strong retail advantages and high dividend yields, with leading brokerages expected to outperform in the current environment [3]. - The trading volume remains high, and the personal investor activity is on an upward trend, which is likely to continue benefiting brokerages with strong retail capabilities [3]. Stock Selection Recommendations - Three main investment themes are recommended: a. High beta financial information service providers such as Zhina Compass and Dongfang Wealth [4] b. Leading brokerages with strong retail advantages and high dividend yields, including Guosen Securities and China Merchants Securities [4] c. Companies benefiting from the recovery of the Hong Kong stock market, such as Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing [4]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with the asset side under pressure from long-term interest rates and increased market volatility [5]. - The liability side is expected to see stable growth, with a focus on improving the quality of new business value (NBV) and a reduction in interest rate risk [5]. - The sector's valuation remains low, and there are structural opportunities, particularly in property and casualty insurance, with a positive outlook for profitability improvements [5].