不锈钢：盘面维持窄幅震荡 供需矛盾强化

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing stable prices with limited fluctuations, influenced by weak demand and inventory pressures, while macroeconomic uncertainties persist [2]. Raw Materials - Philippine mines have sold resources for June at 1.4% FOB43, while Indonesian nickel ore domestic trade premiums have risen to +26-27, with expectations of further price increases due to tight supply during the rainy season [1][2]. - Nickel iron prices are under pressure, with the latest mainstream steel mills quoting 940 yuan per nickel (including tax), and iron mills have suspended pricing [1][2]. Supply - According to Mysteel, domestic stainless steel production is expected to reach 3.4899 million tons in May, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% but a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. The 300 series production is projected at 1.776 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 7.5% year-on-year [1]. Inventory - Social inventory data remains stable, with a slight decrease in warehouse receipts. As of May 9, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons week-on-week. Stainless steel futures inventory is at 159,685 tons, down 5,257 tons week-on-week [1][2]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has improved slightly, with recent tariff issues fading, but uncertainties remain regarding negotiations between the U.S. and other parties. The demand recovery in manufacturing is slow, with purchasing primarily focused on essential restocking [2]. Price Outlook - The market is expected to experience weak fluctuations, with the main trading range projected between 12,600 and 13,000 yuan [3].