Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has strengthened against the US dollar (USD), currently trading around 0.6400, following a significant rise in Australian consumer inflation data that exceeded market expectations [1] - The unexpected increase in inflation has diminished market bets on further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), leading to a reassessment of the AUD's interest rate differential advantage [1] - The current upward momentum of the AUD is supported by a robust domestic economic outlook compared to the uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies, as well as a technical breakout that has attracted trend traders [1] Group 2 - A daily closing price for AUD/USD above the resistance zone of 0.6515-0.65156 would confirm a breakout and potentially open the path to 0.6549, which corresponds to the 38.2% retracement level of the decline from September to April [2] - Stronger upward momentum could extend to levels of 0.6699 and 0.6758, both of which are within long-term retracement ranges [2] - If the AUD fails to maintain above the 200-day moving average at 0.6461 and the short-term 50.0% retracement level at 0.6428, bearish sentiment may increase, with the previous range high at 0.6380 becoming a key support level [2]
通胀超预期压制降息 澳元重获利差优势支撑
Jin Tou Wang·2025-05-09 04:02