5月钢市将迎需求强弱转换！需求见顶、钢厂减产预期并存 钢价或延续低位区间波动

Core Viewpoint - Domestic steel prices have further declined since the "May Day" holiday, with rebar futures hitting a new low of 3030 yuan/ton, indicating a weak market outlook for May [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The steel market is expected to see a peak in demand in May, followed by a decline, which will compress steel mill profits and lead to production cuts [1][3] - Despite April being a traditional peak season for steel demand, prices remained under pressure due to macroeconomic factors and rumors of crude steel production cuts [1][2] - The transition from peak to off-peak season, along with seasonal rainfall, is likely to weaken demand further [2] Price Trends - Steel prices are anticipated to continue fluctuating within a range, with rebar expected to trade between 3000 and 3300 yuan/ton and hot-rolled coil between 3100 and 3300 yuan/ton [3] - The market may enter a phase characterized by "weak expectations and weak realities," affecting price stability [2] Supply Factors - Steel supply has increased in the first quarter due to acceptable profit levels for steel mills, but this may change as demand weakens in May [3] - The supply of scrap steel is expected to be limited, and the growth potential for short-process steel mills is also constrained [3] - The overall steel supply is nearing its peak, with limited upward movement anticipated [3] Iron Ore Market - With steel demand likely peaking in May, iron ore shipments are expected to increase in the coming months, potentially leading to a replenishment of port inventories and a risk of price declines [4]