【财经分析】3%增长目标背后：巴西经济动能与隐忧并存

Economic Growth Outlook - Brazil aims to achieve an average annual economic growth of over 3% by 2026, driven by tax reforms, financial improvements, and green transitions [1] - The Brazilian economy is projected to grow by 2.9% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024, marking the highest growth rate since 2021 [1] Fiscal Policy and Domestic Demand - The Brazilian government has injected over 350 billion reais (approximately 70.5 billion USD) into the economy through various measures to support domestic demand amid high interest rates [2] - Fiscal policies have played a crucial role in maintaining economic resilience, with government spending bolstering household consumption and service sectors as key drivers of GDP growth [2] Structural Reforms and Investment Climate - The Lula administration has initiated comprehensive reforms, including tax integration and carbon market legislation, with the unified VAT reform seen as a significant overhaul of the tax system [3] - These reforms are expected to simplify compliance costs for businesses and enhance tax efficiency, leading to increased private capital inflow in infrastructure and clean energy sectors [3] Green Economy and Foreign Investment - Brazil is positioning itself as a "green growth" nation, leveraging its renewable energy resources and low-carbon agricultural technologies to attract foreign investment [4] - Since 2024, various countries, including Germany, France, Japan, and China, have accelerated their investments in Brazil's green funds and sustainable infrastructure projects [5] - The green transition is enhancing Brazil's competitiveness in global green value chains, although challenges such as weak infrastructure and insufficient technology reserves remain [5]