杰富瑞：香港借贷成本下降，房地产市场或触底

Group 1 - Jefferies indicates that the declining interest rates in Hong Kong increase the likelihood of the residential real estate market hitting bottom [1] - The one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) has dropped significantly by 205 basis points over the past four days, providing a glimmer of hope for the struggling real estate market [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority sold HKD 129.4 billion (approximately USD 16.6 billion) to prevent the Hong Kong dollar from appreciating beyond its peg with the US dollar, resulting in increased liquidity in the currency market [1] Group 2 - Jefferies' global equity strategy head, Christopher Wood, suggests that if the Hong Kong dollar does not appreciate, local asset prices will face upward pressure, further increasing the chances of the residential real estate market bottoming out [1] - The Centaline Property Agency reports that current property prices have fallen approximately 29% from the peak in August 2021, with the number of negative equity households reaching the highest level since 2003 as of the end of March [1] - Analysts Sam Wong and Shujin Chen from Jefferies note that while the decline in Hibor may ease financing cost pressures for developers and landlords, it could also compress local banks' profit margins [2] Group 3 - The banking sector in Hong Kong may be approaching a profitability turning point, although it has not yet arrived, with ongoing net interest margin pressure [2] - By the second quarter of 2025, the growth momentum of non-interest income may weaken [2]