KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 新浪证券·2025-05-09 07:10Industry Overview - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment in 2024, characterized by a decline in both production and sales, a slowdown in terminal sales, shrinking consumption scenarios, and insufficient consumer confidence [1] - The number of liquor companies experiencing revenue decline has increased from 2 to 6 compared to the previous year, with companies like Jiu Gui Jiu and Shun Xin Agriculture facing significant downturns for two consecutive years [1] Contract Liabilities - The total contract liabilities for 19 listed liquor companies in 2024 reached 55.986 billion yuan, an increase of 2.9 billion yuan from the previous year [2] - Major companies such as Wu Liang Ye, Yang He, Guizhou Moutai, and Shanxi Fenjiu accounted for 72% of the total contract liabilities, amounting to 40.299 billion yuan [2] - Luzhou Laojiao reported a contract liability of only 3.978 billion yuan, significantly lower than its peers despite similar revenue levels [2] Changes in Contract Liabilities - Eleven companies saw a decline in contract liabilities, with Guizhou Moutai's liabilities decreasing by 32% from 14.126 billion yuan to 9.592 billion yuan [4] - The reduction in Guizhou Moutai's contract liabilities is attributed to a slowdown in the payment pace from distributors and an increase in direct sales channels [4] Cash Collection Ratio - In 2024, two liquor companies reported a cash collection ratio below 100%, down from five the previous year [5] - Jin Zhong Zi Jiu has consistently reported a cash collection ratio below 100% for two years, with a revenue decrease of 37% and a loss of 258 million yuan in 2024 [5] - The company's core revenue from low-end products decreased by 29%, with significant declines in gross margins across all product categories [6] Summary of Key Financial Metrics - A table summarizes the contract liabilities and cash collection ratios for various companies, highlighting significant changes from 2023 to 2024 [7]