MELCO INT'L DEV(00200) 智通财经网·2025-05-09 08:48Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that due to the continuous increase in market share, the adjusted EBITDA forecasts for Melco International Development for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 2% to HKD 14.01 billion and HKD 13.45 billion respectively [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a 5x EV/adjusted EBITDA for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 48% compared to the current stock price [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, Melco Resorts reported net revenue of USD 1.232 billion, an increase of 11% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 89% of Q1 2019 levels [2] - The adjusted property EBITDA for Q1 2025 was USD 341 million, up 14% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of USD 315 million [2] - The performance is attributed to the increase in market share at City of Dreams and Studio City in Macau [2] Group 3 - Management indicated that the market share in Macau reached 15.7% in April 2025, with high-end mass gaming continuing to drive performance growth [3] - The show "The House of Dancing Water" premiered at City of Dreams on May 7, 2025 [3] - Management expects the reinvestment rate in the Macau gaming industry to stabilize compared to a year ago [3] Group 4 - During the May Day Golden Week in 2025, the betting volume in Macau properties was strong, with a 20% year-on-year increase in mass gaming at City of Dreams, supported by a 30% increase in property foot traffic [4] - The win amount from rated customers in Macau properties increased by 12% year-on-year [4]