Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that domestic refineries have experienced a profit recovery after the decline in oil prices during March and April, leading to various forms of inventory replenishment and a slight increase in the expectation of facility resumption [1] - Raw material inventory has shown a certain recovery from previously low levels, with different regions such as Shandong, Northeast, and East China maintaining stable short-term operations despite weak demand for refined oil and raw material disruptions affecting long-term capacity utilization [1] - In North China, the situation is more cautious due to influences from raw material consumption taxes and geopolitical factors [1] Group 2 - In the chemical light oil processing sector, the valuation of aromatics has returned to fundamentals, and the arbitrage window between domestic and international markets has narrowed [1] - In the olefins sector, there is cautious procurement of ethane due to fluctuations in tariff policies, while propane may shift towards Middle Eastern sources, with policy integration and quota distribution being key areas of future focus [1]
【国泰君安期货能化联合调研】金十期货特约国泰君安期货分析：国内炼厂在经历3-4月油价下跌后利润持续修复，均有不同程度、不同形式的点价备货，原料库存从此前低位有一定回升，装置复工预期小幅增强。从原油采购渠道看，近期地缘风险带来的不利影响明显，或削弱中长期行业利润。分产业链和品种看，山东、东北、华东地炼短期 开工 稳定，但成品油需求疲软及原料扰动抑制中长期产能利用率。华北方面有所不同，受原料消费税、地缘等影响相对更谨慎。化工轻油加工方面，芳烃估值回归基本面，内外盘套利窗口收窄；烯烃方面，关税政策波动下乙烷采购谨