标普500浮现红色预警 关税阴霾下或开启历史最差回报周期

Core Insights - A stock market indicator has entered a historical phase associated with poor return prospects for the S&P 500 index, influenced by trade tensions that have weakened U.S. corporate earnings growth [1] - The Bloomberg industry research stock market cycle model has categorized the market into three phases: accelerating growth, moderate growth, and decline, with the current model indicating a bearish signal for the first time since February 2022 [1][3] Group 1: Market Cycle and Indicators - The stock market cycle model has entered a warning red zone, with the S&P 500 index having dropped below its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2023, currently about 1% below long-term support [3] - The average decline for the S&P 500 during previous red cycles has been 5.6% over the following 12 months, with the current cycle being the first bearish signal since the onset of concerns over the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1][5] - The model is based on six factors, including the correlation of component stock returns and the annual change in the benchmark index's price-to-book ratio [3] Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The recent red cycle is characterized by a significant drop in the S&P 500 index and a decline in its price-to-book ratio growth rate, aligning with historical red cycle patterns [3][5] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that interest rate cuts will not occur until there is clarity on trade policy from the White House, despite acknowledging a decline in consumer and business confidence [3] - Analysts suggest that a shift towards a more optimistic outlook may require the White House to ease its protectionist stance, which could alleviate stagflation concerns and improve corporate earnings prospects [5]