Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On May 9, the domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results, with polysilicon futures rising over 5% and alumina futures increasing by over 3% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1352.13 points, down 1.82 points or 0.13% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Polysilicon Market Analysis - Polysilicon futures rebounded significantly after hitting a new low, with the main contract rising nearly 6% on May 9, driven by low registered warehouse receipts and concerns over delivery shortages [2] - The upstream and downstream industries of polysilicon are highly concentrated, with major companies currently operating at a loss, leading to weak willingness to produce below market prices [2] - Despite short-term volatility in the near-month contracts, the fundamental outlook for polysilicon remains weak, with expectations of further inventory accumulation in downstream silicon wafer markets [2] Group 3: Alumina Market Dynamics - Alumina prices continued to rise, closing up 3.06% and marking a "three consecutive days of gains," influenced by mining disruptions and capacity concerns [3] - News of Guinea's government potentially revoking mining licenses for EGA has positively impacted market sentiment, despite limited immediate effects on current production capacity [3] - The reduction in open interest during the rebound suggests that the sustainability and extent of the price increase may be limited [3] Group 4: Black Building Materials Performance - On May 9, black building materials experienced a decline, with coke futures dropping over 2% and other materials like glass and rebar also falling [4] - Steel mills showed a high operating rate of 84.62%, with a year-on-year increase in profitability, but market sentiment remains pessimistic due to weak terminal demand [4] - Expectations of peak iron water production amid declining demand and shrinking profits for steel mills contribute to the ongoing weakness in the black materials sector [4] Group 5: Glass Market Conditions - Despite a gradual supply contraction, glass inventories continued to rise, with a nearly 4% increase in total inventory as of May 8, exceeding market expectations [5] - The slow recovery in orders and operating rates for downstream processing enterprises limits significant support for glass prices [5] - The glass market may require more time to transition from weakness to strength, given the stable production levels and subdued demand [5]
商品日报（5月9日）：多晶硅大幅反弹 黑色建材持续走弱
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-05-09 11:41