Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the "export rush" effect in China is expected to continue until May, but may face uncertainties in June [1] - Leading indicators suggest that the import of processing trade, which is a precursor to the export rush, has shown a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points to 5.0% in April, indicating that the export rush will likely persist into May [1] - Observational data from mid-May shows a significant increase in booking throughput at the Port of Los Angeles and a rise in the Yiwu small commodity export price index since late April, further supporting the expectation of continued export rush in May [1] Group 2 - The report notes that the tariff suspension period for emerging economies is 90 days, and considering the one-month shipping delay for goods from these countries to the U.S., the export rush effect in June is anticipated to diminish [1]
申万宏源:“抢出口”效应或持续至5月,预计6月我国抢出口效应或有所消退