美联储理事巴尔喊话特朗普：关税可能推动通胀与失业率齐升

Core Viewpoint - The aggressive trade policies of the Trump administration may create long-term inflationary pressures and higher unemployment rates, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve's current benchmark interest rate is set between 4.25% and 4.50%, which is considered appropriate for the time being [1][2] - Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have indicated that there is no urgency to adjust interest rates, allowing time to assess the impact of tariff policies [1][2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained the interest rate unchanged for three consecutive meetings, reflecting market expectations [1][2] Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The scale and scope of recent tariff increases are unprecedented in modern history, and their ultimate impact on the economy remains unclear [2][3] - It is anticipated that the tariffs will lead to accelerated inflation and a slowdown in GDP growth for both the U.S. and significant global economies starting later this year [2][3] - Concerns over tariffs have already resulted in a sharp decline in consumer and business confidence, alongside a surge in import volumes [2][3] Group 3: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The potential for tariffs to disrupt global supply chains could create persistent upward pressure on U.S. inflation while also increasing unemployment rates [3][4] - The current labor market remains resilient, with April's non-farm payrolls adding 177,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations [2][4] - However, "soft data" indicators, such as consumer confidence surveys, show increasing pessimism about future economic conditions [4] Group 4: Future Considerations - The Federal Reserve is cautious about the dual challenge of managing inflation and unemployment simultaneously, which could complicate monetary policy decisions [3][4] - The impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market is also a topic of discussion, with potential for significant improvements in living standards but also challenges for workers [4] - Michael Barr, a Federal Reserve Governor, has emphasized the importance of avoiding distractions that could detract from the Fed's core responsibilities [4]