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Is Dollar Tree Stock a Buy, Hold or Sell at a P/E Multiple of 15.9X?
DLTRDollar Tree(DLTR) ZACKS·2025-05-09 18:00

Valuation - Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.85, which is significantly lower than the industry's average of 32.52 and the broader Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector's 23.07, indicating potential undervaluation [1] Stock Performance - Shares of Dollar Tree have increased by 15.6% over the past three months, contrasting with a 3.6% decline in the industry, and also outperforming the broader Zacks Consumer Staples sector and the S&P 500, which fell by 9.1% and 7.2%, respectively [3] - The stock is currently trading above its 50- and 200-day moving averages, suggesting strong upward momentum and price stability, reflecting positive market sentiment [5] Growth Drivers - Dollar Tree is experiencing strong sales growth across segments, with enterprise same-store sales improving by 2% year over year, driven by a 0.7% increase in customer traffic and a 1.3% rise in average ticket size [8] - The company has made strategic moves to enhance its core business, including new store openings, renovations, and the rollout of a multi-price point strategy with 3and3 and 5 assortments, which have shown positive results [9][10] - A significant development includes the sale of its Family Dollar business for 1.007billion,allowingDollarTreetofocusonitshigherperformingDollarTreebanner[11]FutureOutlookManagementprojectsrobusttoplinegrowthfortheDollarTreebanner,withexpectedsamestoresalesgrowthof351.007 billion, allowing Dollar Tree to focus on its higher-performing Dollar Tree banner [11] Future Outlook - Management projects robust top-line growth for the Dollar Tree banner, with expected same-store sales growth of 3-5% and adjusted EPS of 5.00-5.50forfiscal2025,comparedto5.50 for fiscal 2025, compared to 5.10 in fiscal 2024 [12][13] - The company anticipates improvements in gross margin and sales productivity, particularly as it operates Dollar Tree as a standalone entity [14] Current Challenges - Dollar Tree has faced increased selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses due to rising operating costs, software impairments, and costs related to the Family Dollar sale [16] - The company is navigating a challenging macroeconomic environment, with expected monthly impacts of 1515-20 million from the 10% China tariff for fiscal 2025 [17]