Core Viewpoint - Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey maintains an Outperform rating on Birkenstock Holding (BIRK) with a price target of $70, anticipating strong revenue growth and margin improvements in the upcoming second-quarter results [1]. Revenue and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow by 17.7% year-over-year to €566.4 million, slightly below the consensus estimate of €568.2 million [1]. - Adjusted EBITDA is estimated at €193.3 million, up from €162.3 million in the prior-year quarter, closely aligning with the consensus view of €192.9 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 34.1% [5]. Margin Analysis - A gross margin expansion of 30 basis points to 56.6% is expected, marginally exceeding the consensus forecast of 56.5% [2]. - Operating expenses are anticipated to remain flat year-over-year at 27.6%, slightly below the consensus figure of 27.7%, leading to a projected 180-basis-point improvement in pretax profit margin to 24.8%, just under the Street's expectation of a 230-basis-point rise to 25.3% [4]. Market Position and Strategy - Birkenstock benefits from a relative advantage in tariff exposure, manufacturing in Germany and deriving only 52% of its fiscal 2024 revenue from the Americas, which limits vulnerability compared to footwear industry peers [3]. - The company is successfully expanding its closed-toe shoe segment and driving average selling price growth, positioning itself well in a market where consumers are becoming more selective with spending [6]. Current Stock Performance - BIRK shares are currently trading lower by 0.36% at $52.28 [7].
Birkenstock Has A Tariff Advantage Going In Q2: Analyst