美联储理事Cook：预计特朗普政府的贸易政策和相关的不确定性将在短期内拖累生产率的增长，这可能促使美联储在更长时间内维持政策利率不变。由于生产率下降，潜在经济增速的下滑将带来更大的通胀压力。在其他条件相同的情况下，较低的生产率可能会促使我支持在更长时间内将利率保持在较高水平。由于企业不知道关税的最终水平或持续时间，贸易政策的不确定性可能会减少商业投资，从而影响生产率。如果保护主义贸易政策支持效率较低的公司，或者如果这些变化导致供应链中断，生产率也可能受到影响。人工智能可以在未来几年提高美国的生产率，潜在地抵

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook anticipates that the trade policies and related uncertainties of the Trump administration will dampen productivity growth in the short term, potentially leading the Fed to maintain policy interest rates unchanged for a longer period [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - A decline in productivity and a slowdown in potential economic growth will likely increase inflationary pressures [1] - Lower productivity, under unchanged conditions, may lead to support for keeping interest rates elevated for an extended duration [1] Group 2: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Uncertainty regarding the final levels and duration of tariffs may reduce business investment, thereby impacting productivity [1] - If protectionist trade policies favor less efficient companies or disrupt supply chains, productivity could also be adversely affected [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Artificial intelligence has the potential to enhance U.S. productivity in the coming years, potentially offsetting the negative impacts of trade policies [1]