中金：预计后续年内相对确定的南向增量约为2000-3000亿港元

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a significant slowdown in southbound capital inflows since late April, with net outflows observed on 5 out of the last 10 trading days, contrasting sharply with the rapid inflows seen from February to mid-April [1] - As of the end of Q1, the domestic actively managed equity funds' holdings in Hong Kong stocks reached a historical high of 30.8%, suggesting that institutional "bullets" may not be as plentiful as previously thought [1] - The estimated incremental southbound capital for the year is projected to be around HKD 200-300 billion, with total inflows expected to reach approximately HKD 800-1,000 billion for the year [1] Group 2 - In the recent week, there was a cumulative net inflow of HKD 7.27 billion over four trading days, significantly higher than the HKD 1.24 billion inflow in the three trading days before the May Day holiday, with an average daily inflow of HKD 1.82 billion compared to HKD 0.41 billion the previous week [2] - The stocks with the highest inflows included Meituan, China Construction Bank, and Alibaba, while Tencent, Xiaomi Group, and SMIC saw the most selling [2] Group 3 - According to EPFR data, there was an expansion in active foreign capital outflows, with USD 0.4 million flowing out of A-shares and USD 1.2 million from Hong Kong stocks and ADRs, indicating a shift in fund focus towards China and emerging markets [3] - Conversely, passive foreign capital turned to inflows, with USD 2.6 million flowing into A-shares and USD 3.7 million into Hong Kong stocks and ADRs, primarily from funds focused on China, emerging markets, and global markets [3] - As of the end of March, the allocation of major global active funds to China was 6.8%, down from 13% in early 2018 and 15% in early 2021, indicating a slight increase from 6.5% at the end of February but still reflecting a low allocation compared to benchmarks [3]