爱玛科技(603529)：Q1业绩符合预期 持续关注以旧换新贝塔下公司表现

Core Viewpoint - The company reported stable performance in 2024 despite market regulatory changes and standard shifts, with revenue growth of 2.71% and profit growth of 5.68%. In Q1 2025, benefiting from the trade-in policy, revenue and profit growth accelerated significantly, with revenue increasing by 25.82% and profit by 25.12% [1][3][4] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 21.606 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.71%, with a net profit of 1.988 billion, up 5.68%. The Q1 2025 revenue reached 6.232 billion, reflecting a 25.82% year-on-year growth, and net profit was 605 million, up 25.12% [3][4] - The core segment (electric bicycles, electric motorcycles, and electric tricycles) sold 10.457 million units in 2024, a decrease of 2.44%. However, the average price increased by approximately 5% due to a relatively stable competitive environment [4] - The trade-in policy initiated in 2025 is expected to drive a 20% increase in sales volume and a 5% increase in average price, indicating a positive trend in sales growth and product structure improvement [4] Profitability - The gross margin in Q4 2024 was 19.53%, slightly down year-on-year, but the single-unit gross margin is expected to improve. The decline in gross margin is attributed to a higher proportion of lower-margin bicycle business [5] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 19.63%, up 1.59 percentage points, mainly due to product structure optimization [5] - The overall expense ratio showed a clear downward trend in 2024, with a slight increase in Q1 2025 due to the recognition of stock incentive expenses [5] Industry Outlook - The industry remains in a high-growth phase, supported by favorable policies. The trade-in program for electric bicycles has seen increased subsidies and optimized processes, which are expected to enhance performance in 2025 [6][7] - The market is progressively pricing in the high growth potential of the sector, with significant elasticity in both revenue and profit for leading brands [7] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 27.224 billion, 29.946 billion, and 34.139 billion from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 10%, and 14% respectively. Net profits are expected to be 2.586 billion, 2.701 billion, and 3.074 billion, with growth rates of 30.10%, 4.44%, and 13.81% [8]