先导智能(300450)：需求边际改善 有望迎业绩拐点

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with expectations of gradual recovery in 2025 due to improving demand in the lithium battery sector and ongoing global expansion efforts [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 11.855 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 286 million yuan, down 83.88% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.098 billion yuan, a decline of 6.42% year-on-year, and a net profit of 365 million yuan, down 35.30% [1] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 34.98%, with a comparable year-on-year decrease of 0.62 percentage points [2] - The sales net profit margin for 2024 was 2.26%, a significant drop of 8.39 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 showed a slight improvement to 11.33% [2] Business Segment Performance - In 2024, revenue from lithium battery equipment was 7.689 billion yuan, down 39.18%, while intelligent logistics systems revenue increased by 30.49% to 1.867 billion yuan [1] - The gross margin for lithium battery equipment remained stable at 38.94%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.25 percentage points, while the gross margin for intelligent logistics systems rose significantly by 14.17 percentage points to 21.05% [2] Market Outlook - The second half of 2024 is expected to see a recovery in domestic demand as leading battery manufacturers resume expansion plans, with global electrification trends driving overseas demand [3] - The company is positioned as a leader in the lithium battery equipment sector, with a growing share of overseas orders and deep collaborations with major domestic and international battery and vehicle manufacturers [3] - The company is focusing on technological innovation, launching key technologies in the all-solid-state battery field and continuously introducing cutting-edge products in solar and hydrogen energy sectors [3] Investment Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.336 billion yuan, 1.881 billion yuan, and 2.437 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.85, 1.20, and 1.56 yuan [3]