现房销售渐成趋势，市场影响几何？

Core Viewpoint - The topic of "immediate housing sales" has gained market attention as multiple regions actively pilot this approach, with supporting policies continuously improving, leading to a steady increase in market share [1][3]. Group 1: Background and Development - The pre-sale system for commercial housing originated in Hong Kong and was introduced to mainland China in the 1990s, becoming mainstream and helping real estate companies quickly recover funds and enhance development efficiency [3]. - However, as the market evolved, issues such as delivery risks and quality disputes associated with the pre-sale system became prominent, prompting the pilot of immediate housing sales to cool down land acquisition during market overheating and ensure delivery amid industry risks [3]. Group 2: Regional Pilot Programs - Hainan was the first province in China to implement immediate housing sales policies at the provincial level, mandating that newly sold land for residential construction must adopt this sales method since March 2020 [3]. - Beijing expanded the pilot scope for immediate housing sales in concentrated land auctions starting in 2021, and after optimizing the concentrated land supply system in 2023, some plots still included a "competitive immediate housing sales" segment [3]. - Shenzhen restarted its exploration of immediate housing sales in August 2023, with plans for all plots to require immediate sales by October 2024 [3]. Group 3: Policy Support - Both central and local governments are collaboratively supporting the pilot of immediate housing sales, with over 30 provinces and cities initiating trials or issuing supportive policies since the end of 2022 [3]. - Cities like Hefei and Zhengzhou have explicitly defined pilot projects, while places like Ganzhou, Jiujiang, and Shandong have introduced measures such as extending land transfer payment deadlines, tax subsidies, and increasing public housing loan limits [3]. - The concept of immediate housing sales was systematically proposed for the first time at the national housing and urban-rural development work conference in January 2023, with several provinces like Shandong and Anhui confirming their pilot programs [3]. Group 4: Market Data and Trends - The proportion of immediate housing sales is gradually increasing, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting that the sales area for immediate housing in 2024 is approximately 300 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, accounting for 30.84% of total sales [4]. - The market share for immediate housing sales from 2020 to 2023 was recorded at 12.7%, 13%, 17.3%, and 22.5% respectively [4]. Group 5: Industry Implications - The director of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, Zhang Bo, believes that immediate housing sales represent a significant trend for the future of the real estate incremental market and are crucial for promoting high-quality transformation of real estate companies, although comprehensive implementation requires multi-dimensional supporting reforms [4]. - Currently, the timing for full implementation is deemed immature, as rapid execution may elevate market risks and impact the industry negatively [4]. - For real estate companies, immediate housing sales extend the capital recovery cycle and increase pressure, potentially reducing new housing supply in the short term and delaying market recovery [4]. - In the long run, immediate housing sales are expected to enhance product quality, compel companies to optimize design, materials, and amenities, and promote industry competition, accelerating consolidation within the sector [4].