暂停或撤回盈利预测，欧美汽车产业链被“不确定性”包围

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry, particularly in Europe and the U.S., is facing significant challenges due to economic uncertainties, fluctuating tariffs, and declining demand for electric vehicles, leading to a general decline in profitability across major companies [1][2][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Bosch Group reported a sales revenue of €90.3 billion for the fiscal year 2024, a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, with an adjusted decline of 0.5% after currency effects. The EBIT was €3.1 billion, down from €4.8 billion in 2023, resulting in an EBIT margin of 3.5% [1]. - Mercedes-Benz's net profit for Q1 was €1.73 billion, a decrease of approximately 43% year-on-year, while BMW's net profit fell by 26.4% to €2.173 billion. Volkswagen saw a nearly 41% drop in net profit despite a nearly 3% increase in revenue [2]. - Ford's net profit in Q1 dropped by 64.49% to $473 million, while General Motors reported a net profit of $2.8 billion, down 6.6% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese market is crucial for multinational automotive companies, with electric vehicles rapidly gaining market share at the expense of traditional fuel vehicles. This shift has pressured joint venture brands that primarily focus on fuel vehicles [3][4]. - The competition in the Chinese automotive market is intense, leading to significant price reductions. Entry-level compact fuel vehicles are now priced below ¥80,000, while B-class vehicles have dropped to around ¥150,000 [4][5]. - Luxury brands are experiencing severe price discrepancies, with price reductions reaching up to 50% due to supply-demand imbalances [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Predictions - Bosch aims for an annual sales growth of at least 6% and a profit margin of at least 7% by 2030, despite the current economic uncertainties affecting short-term profitability predictions [6][7]. - Many companies, including Cummins and Mercedes-Benz, have suspended or withdrawn their 2025 profit forecasts due to the unpredictable nature of tariff policies and their potential impacts on consumer behavior and demand [8][9]. - General Motors has also retracted its 2025 performance guidance, anticipating a reduction in EBIT by $4 billion to $5 billion due to tariff impacts [9][10].